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Credit Risk Model

  • 2 Devlogs
  • 2 Total hours

A credit risk model that predicts the probability of default (PD) for personal loan borrowers using logistic regression, and estimates the expected financial loss per loan. Built as part of the JPMorgan Chase Quantitative Research Virtual Experience on Forage.

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Built a credit risk model that predicts the probability of default for loan borrowers using logistic regression. The most challenging part was understanding why logistic regression works for this problem instead of linear regression — the sigmoid curve keeps outputs between 0 and 1, which is essential for probabilities. I'm proud of building a fully functional expected loss function from scratch that a real bank risk team could use. To test it, run the script with the CSV in the same folder and call expected_loss_func() with any borrower's details to get their expected dollar loss.

  • 2 devlogs
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Built a credit risk model for JPMorgan Chase Quantitative Research Task 3. Used logistic regression in Python (scikit-learn) to predict the probability of default (PD) for 10,000 loan borrowers. Split the data 80/20 for training and testing, then calculated expected loss per loan using the formula: PD × Loan Amount × 0.90, assuming a 10% recovery rate.

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