Ship
This might be the last devlog for a bit, but the project is officially live with the help of streamlit as this is a python project. The link is already live, so you can simulate your own matches and see what the consensus result was through multiple simulations. This project will be shipped soon but updated again for when the knockout stage matchups are set in stone. Attached is how it looks on the main page.
Update: I added the FIFA rankings as another metric to simulate the games. I also strayed away from using the poisson model to predict outcome and now only use it for scoring purposes as the random forest model is much more accurate. Attached are the updated probabilities.
So I recently decided to train a model to help predict the group stage matches for the FIFA world cup. It’s a combination of a Random Forest Model and Poisson Distribution to help predict the games. Currently I’m only training the model based off of a teams ELO and recent form(performance in past 5 games), but plan on adding FIFA’s point system as another metric. I attached the most common match result of each game after running the simulation 1000 times and the probability of where each team finishes this year(first, second, third qual., third elim., and fourth)
